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Summer Farm-to-Table Gourmet 4-Course Wine Dinner
Friday, June 17, 2016 - 6:30pm to 9:00pm
Jowler Creek Winery

Celebrate the start of summer with a delicious gourmet meal in our barrel room with paired with items sourced from local farmers and artisans. We’ll kick off the dinner with a light and refreshing summer cocktail, and each of the four courses will be created to pair perfectly with a different Jowler Creek wine. Check out our Facebook page for more details on the menu. Cost: $89/person (or $75.65 for Creek Club members). Seating is very limited so reserve your spot today by calling (816) 858-5528

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Saturday, June 18, 2016 - 11:00am to Sunday, June 19, 2016 - 7:00pm
Weston Wine Company

It’s dad’s day - treat him like the king that he is! Bring your dad into Weston Wine Company for a wine tasting and a special maple bacon cupcake! Tastings are just $7 to try all 7 wines (cost includes a glass to take home). Cupcakes are only $1.99/each, $10.99 for a 6-pack or $19.99/dozen! Feel free to call us at (816) 386-2345 to reserve your cupcakes as they’re only available while supplies last. No reservations are needed for our standard wine tasting - just stop by during business hours to tantalize your taste buds! (Sunday 12-5pm)

Bryan Lola Live at Blumenhof Winery
Saturday, June 18, 2016 - 12:00pm to 3:00pm
Blumenhof Winery

Bryan Lola (Folk/Rock/Jazz) will perform at Blumenhof Winery in Dutzow, MO on Saturday, June 18 from noon to 3pm.

Vince Martin at Chaumette
Saturday, June 18, 2016 - 1:00pm to 4:00pm
Chaumette Vineyard Winery
FOOD+WINE: Wine Pairing and Tour
Saturday, June 18, 2016 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm
Jowler Creek Winery
Acoustic Music in the Courtyard
Saturday, June 18, 2016 - 2:00pm to 5:00pm
Weston Wine Company

Join us the third Saturday of each month in the summer and fall for some live acoustic music in our “secret garden” behind the tasting room. Relax and take a break with your favorite beverage while listening to the sounds of Erica McKenzie. It’s FREE to attend and you don’t need to RSVP – just come on out! No outside beverages allowed.

Hence, the forecasting hypothesis is the following:


Convex (Non-linear) Relationship.

The relative forecasting accuracy increases, as we move forward in time, compared to the benchmark’s.


Linear Relationship.

The relative forecasting accuracy remains constant, as we move forward in time, compared to the benchmark’s.

The full sample starts in 1880 and ends in 2017, while the forecasted period f lies in between: \( T_{window + 1} \le f \le T_{end} \) , where \( T_{window + 1} \) refers to the first period in the sample after the model’s estimation window. As mentioned before, we use a rolling window with different time-lengths in order to examine the forecasting performance of emissions when more recent values are included in the training sample.

The time-length of the variable rolling window is selected from the following set N : \( N = \left\{ {30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100} \right\} \)

Hence, the output of this iterative procedure is a series of 1 step-ahead forecasts of \( T\_dts_{f,i} \) over the remaining observations. When N equals 30, the training sample is between 1880 and 1909 leaving the rest of the period until 2017 for forecasting. On the other hand when the maximum N = 100 is used, the training sample stops in 1979, allowing for a more recent sample only to be forecasted, compared with the first window.

To evaluate the forecasting performance of the four models produced by Eqs.( Beston EK35 Womens Stretchy Snug Fit Back Zipper Ankle Booties Half Size Small Brown DGTCvXj3KL
) and ( 6 ), we compare it with an appropriate ARIMA model that is used as a benchmark. Since the benchmark does not include emissions in its right hand side, it enables us to cross-compare the forecast accuracy of our models.

$$ \left( {1 - \varphi_{1} {\rm B} - \varphi_{2} {\rm B}^{2} - \varphi_{3} {\rm B}^{3} } \right)T\_dts_{f} = c + \left( {1 + \theta_{1} {\rm B} + \theta_{2} {\rm B}^{2} + \theta_{3} {\rm B}^{3} + \theta_{4} {\rm B}^{4} } \right)\, \in_{f} ,\quad \forall w $$

Stationarity and estimation results for the ARIMA model of Eq.( PUMA Womens Super Elevate Wns Sneaker Puma Blacksilverclearwater nLBjF3Frq

Regarding the evaluation of the forecasting performance, we select an in-sample evaluation using the forecast error measures of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the scale invariant measure of Theil’s inequality coefficient (Theil IC), and an out-of-sample evaluation using the Diebold–Mariano statistics for equal predictive accuracy with the benchmark model.

$$ g_{1} (e_{w} ) = e_{j}^{2} \;\ \;g_{2} (e_{j} ) = \left| {e_{jw}^{{}} } \right|, $$
$$ H_{0} :E\left[ {g_{k,i} (e_{j} ) - g_{k,benchmark} (e_{j} )} \right] = 0,\quad \forall w $$
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Rolling forecasting procedure’s flowchart

The results from all stages, i.e., all previous rolling correlation, structural breaks, rolling regression and rolling forecasting, will enable us to identify the dynamics, if any, in the relationship between emissions and global temperature anomalies, throughout time.

Khan Academy Annual Report 2017

Millions of people around the world use Khan Academy to learn and to improve their lives. We’re inspired by their hard work and thankful to the supporters who make it possible.

Students celebrated learning in LearnStorm, our first-ever national education challenge

LearnStorm is a back-to-school challenge that helps teachers and students in grades 3-12 overcome summer learning loss and start the school year strong. In 2017, thanks to support from ATT, GM, and Carnegie Corporation of New York, LearnStorm rolled out in all 50 states to more than 23,000 teachers and nearly one million students.

Practicing for the SAT on Khan Academy is associated with significant score gains

Research shows studying for the SAT for 20 hours on Khan Academy is associated with an average score increase of 115 points, nearly double the average score gain of students who don't use Khan Academy. We're proud to work with our partner, the College Board, to level the playing field with Official SAT Practice.

SAT data from March 2016 - March 2017 * Average score growth between PSAT and SAT

When my teachers introduced me to Khan Academy, I was so happy that it was free. The website was simple, straight to the point, and it really helped me with problem solving.” - Matthew, Khan Academy Learner

Khan Academy empowers teachers

Imagine a classroom where students can learn at their own individual pace. The teacher knows just where they are stuck and has time to provide one-on-one attention. Khan Academy’s teacher tools empower teachers like Brooke Hogan from Long Beach Unified School District to create those sort of classrooms. Long Beach Unified is a district with traditionally underserved and underrepresented demographics and one of a growing number of school districts across the country and around the world partnering with Khan Academy.

free LSAT prep

We announced Official LSAT Prep

In 2017, we partnered with the Law School Admission Council, the maker of the Law School Admission Test (LSAT). We’re happy to share BalaMasa Womens Comfort SlipResistant RoundToe Travel Urethane Snow Boots ABL09960 Black pZq8x
, the first free and official prep for the LSAT. Aspiring law students can now build the skills and confidence they need to succeed on the LSAT - and it’s 100% free.


By the Numbers

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Because of you, I have started to believe that yes, ANYONE CAN LEARN ANYTHING. Thanks so much.”

– Pranjali, Khan Academy Learner

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